即使华为倒下，也无碍中国崛起

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转自 LightReading 小木匠百度翻译

英文原文：The death of Huawei won't stop the rise of China

The imagery has captured scenes of war, unforgiving weather and even an abattoir as the assault has continued. In March, Huawei faced slaughter on the chopping board, warned Eric Xu, one of its rotating chairmen, as the US threatened tougher sanctions. A month later, it was a seed caught in a storm. By the time the US government discharged another salvo, the Chinese vendor saw itself as a fighter plane riddled with bullets, trying not to crash.

随着袭击的继续，这些图像捕捉到了战争、恶劣天气甚至屠宰场的场景。今年3月，华为轮值主席之一埃里克•徐（Eric Xu）警告称，由于美国威胁要实施更严厉的制裁，华为面临着董事会被屠杀的命运。一个月后，这是一粒被暴风雨困住的种子。当美国政府再次施以援手时，这家中国小贩把自己看作一架布满子弹的战斗机，试图不坠毁。

The world's biggest maker of network equipment has always had a penchant for drama, but this time its contributions do not exaggerate Huawei's predicament. Frustrated that initial sanctions restricting supplies of US components had such a limited impact on the Chinese vendor, the US has gone directly for the jugular in its latest attack. Under new rules, semiconductors made with any US equipment or design expertise will be unavailable to Huawei. By cutting off vital chip supplies from TSMC, a Taiwanese foundry that relies on US manufacturing tools, the US aims to bleed Huawei dry.

作为全球最大的网络设备制造商，华为一向热衷于戏剧化，但这一次它的贡献并没有夸大华为的困境。由于最初限制美国零部件供应的制裁对这家中国供应商的影响如此有限，美国感到沮丧，因此在最近的一次攻击中直接向这家公司进发。根据新规定，华为将无法获得使用任何美国设备或设计专业知识制造的半导体。台积电（TSMC）是一家依赖美国制造工具的台湾铸造厂，通过切断其重要芯片供应，美国旨在让华为血本无归。

Experts are unanimous in depicting the latest measures as a grave threat to the Chinese behemoth. Just how grave is where they disagree. At least one thinks Huawei can survive for only a year if the rules are fully applied. Others are more optimistic about the company's prospects. Yet regardless of its fate, the prevailing view is that a US campaign to stunt China's technological development will ultimately fail.

专家们一致认为，最新措施是对这家中国巨兽的严重威胁。他们不同意的地方有多严重。至少有人认为，如果这些规定得到充分实施，华为只能生存一年。其他人则对公司的前景更加乐观。然而，不管中国的命运如何，普遍的看法是，美国旨在阻碍中国技术发展的行动最终将失败。

Taking flak

Huawei's Guo Ping, a rotating chairman, has likened the company to an aircraft under attack.

华为轮值董事长郭平将华为比作一架受到攻击的飞机。

How long can this keep going on?

For Huawei, the doomsday scenario comes from New Street Research. "As things stand, Huawei has 12 months left to live," wrote analysts for the company in a report this week. The dilemma is the lack of alternatives to US manufacturing tools used by foundries including TSMC and even SMIC, a Chinese company that has been viewed as a potential fallback if the Taiwanese manufacturer is blocked.

对华为来说，世界末日的情景来自于新街调查。”从目前的情况来看，华为还有12个月的生命，”华为分析师本周在一份报告中写道。目前的困境是，包括台积电（TSMC）甚至中芯国际（SMIC）在内的铸造厂缺乏替代美国制造工具的替代品。中芯国际一直被视为台湾制造商受阻后可能出现倒退。

Huawei's dependence on TSMC is hard to overstate. According to estimates prepared by The Information Network, and first published on Seeking Alpha, the Chinese firm is currently TSMC's second-biggest customer, after Apple, accounting for about 15% of its revenues. In 2019, that would have been roughly $5.2 billion, about half of what Huawei spent annually on US components before emergency stockpiling last year. Among other things, Huawei relies on TSMC for certain 5G chips as well as microprocessors used in network servers.

华为对台积电的依赖是难以言喻的。根据信息网（Information Network）的估计，这家中国公司目前是台积电的第二大客户，仅次于苹果，约占其收入的15%。2019年，这将大约为52亿美元，约为华为去年紧急储备前每年在美国零部件上支出的一半。除此之外，华为还依赖台积电（TSMC）生产某些5G芯片以及用于网络服务器的微处理器。

SMIC has never seemed an ideal substitute, purely because it is thought to lag TSMC in chip-building technology. One of the goals in this game is to shrink the size of transistors, measured in nanometers (nm), so that more can be crammed into a chip, boosting performance and efficiency. Huawei's new TIANGANG chip (a type of application-specific integrated circuit, or ASIC) for basestations uses 7nm manufacturing technology deployed by TSMC, according to Stefan Pongratz of market-research firm Dell'Oro. SMIC, he says, has been investing in 14nm technology. "The transition would likely impact the power efficiency and/or computing performance of the ASICs and the overall RAN [radio access network] performance," said Pongratz in an email.

中芯国际似乎从来就不是一个理想的替代品，纯粹是因为它被认为在芯片制造技术上落后于台积电。这个游戏的目标之一是缩小晶体管的尺寸，以纳米（nm）为单位，这样更多的晶体管可以塞进芯片中，提高性能和效率。市场研究公司戴尔奥罗（Dell'Oro）的斯特凡•庞格拉茨（Stefan Pongratz）表示，华为新推出的用于基站的天港芯片（一种专用集成电路，简称ASIC）采用了台积电（TSMC）部署的7nm制造技术。他说，中芯国际一直在投资14nm技术。”Pongratz在一封电子邮件中说：“这种转变可能会影响ASIC的功率效率和/或计算性能，以及整个RAN（无线接入网络）的性能。”。

Chinese funding should eventually produce a more competitive SMIC. Earlier this month, the Shanghai-based company was reported to have planned a sale of shares that could raise about $3 billion. This move, according to New Street Research, should help to "scale out production" and give China a stronger asset. But a shift from TSMC to a more capable SMIC could take too long for Huawei. "To port over any designs to a Chinese foundry would take time and to bring them up to TSMC levels would take years," says Earl Lum of EJL Wireless Research. China is probably about three to five years behind TSMC, reckons New Street Research.

中国的融资最终会产生一个更有竞争力的中芯国际。本月早些时候，据报道，这家总部位于上海的公司计划出售股票，可能筹集约30亿美元。新街研究公司（New Street Research）认为，这一举措应有助于“扩大生产”，并使中国拥有更强大的资产。但从台积电（TSMC）转向更具能力的中芯国际（SMIC）可能需要花太长时间。”EJLWireless Research的厄尔•卢姆（Earl Lum）表示：“将任何设计移植到中国的铸造厂都需要时间，而将它们提升到台积电的水平则需要数年时间。”。最新的街道调查显示，中国可能比台积电落后3到5年。

The other problem is SMIC's apparent use of manufacturing tools made by US companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research and Teradyne. This would make the Chinese foundry subject to the same restrictions that now threaten TSMC's relationship with Huawei. What remains unclear at this early stage is if these new rules are much harder to bypass than the initial blockade on US components, which Huawei's suppliers dodged by relying on their non-US facilities. "One of the key unknowns surrounding this latest change is whether or not there will be any loopholes that can be exploited if, for example, TSMC sends the chips directly to non-Chinese contract manufacturers for integration," says Pongratz.

另一个问题是，中芯国际显然在使用美国公司生产的制造工具，如应用材料、Lam Research和Teradyne。这将使这家中国铸造厂受到同样的限制，而这些限制现在正威胁着台积电与华为的关系。目前尚不清楚的是，这些新规定是否比最初对美国零部件的封锁更难绕过，华为的供应商依靠其非美国设施躲避了这种封锁。”围绕这一最新变化的一个关键未知因素是，如果台积电将芯片直接发送给非中国合同制造商进行整合，是否会有任何漏洞可以利用，”庞格拉茨说。

For China, the only safeguard with an absolute guarantee is to invest in its own manufacturing tools. "The tool development can happen but will, again, take time," says Lum. The speediest path to manufacturing independence could be to reverse-engineer equipment currently provided by a range of European, Japanese and US firms, a tactic Huawei previously used to enter the network equipment market, according to its critics. "At first sight, this will take five to ten years for most tools," say analysts at New Street Research.

对中国来说，唯一有绝对保障的保障是投资于自己的制造工具。”工具开发是可以实现的，但同样需要时间。批评人士称，实现制造业独立的最快途径可能是对目前由一系列欧洲、日本和美国公司提供的设备进行逆向工程，华为此前曾采用这种策略进入网络设备市场。”乍一看，大多数工具都需要5到10年的时间，”新街研究公司的分析师说。

While the new US rules will not take effect for 120 days, no company has the inventory needed to survive over such a long period. In the meantime, many Huawei-reliant countries and service providers – already shaken by the US campaign – will be carrying out an urgent risk assessment. "Regardless of the overall outcome, some of the damage will likely be irreversible," says Pongratz. "This latest effort by the US government to curb the rise of Huawei could be one more reason for these operators on the fence to revisit the 5G supplier landscape."

虽然美国新规定在120天内不会生效，但没有一家公司拥有在如此长的时间内生存所需的库存。与此同时，许多华为依赖的国家和服务提供商将进行紧急风险评估，这些国家和服务提供商已经受到美国行动的冲击。”不管总体结果如何，有些损害可能是不可逆转的美国政府遏制华为崛起的这一最新努力，可能是这些持观望态度的运营商重新审视5G供应商格局的另一个原因。”

Despite this warning, the Dell'Oro analyst is less convinced than New Street Research that the latest US attack will destroy China's biggest vendor. "I am very skeptical this will be enough to take out Huawei," he tells Light Reading. "In short, I believe these restrictions will have some, albeit limited, success in curbing the rise of Huawei."

尽管有这一警告，但戴尔奥罗（Dell'Oro）分析师比新街调查公司（New Street Research）更不相信美国的最新攻击将摧毁中国最大的供应商。”“我非常怀疑这是否足以击败华为，”他告诉光线阅读简言之，我相信这些限制措施将在一定程度上（尽管有限）成功遏制华为的崛起。”

Last year's upheavals confirmed the Chinese firm is a master of adaptation, exploiting loopholes and stockpiling inventory while simultaneously preparing for a future without US suppliers. Spending on research and development, which already dwarfed that of its European and US rivals, soared from $14.3 billion in 2018 to $18.6 billion last year. This year it plans to invest $20 billion. And notwithstanding its claim to have full independence from the Chinese state, it clearly expects China's government to intervene if the US keeps punching.

去年的剧变证实，这家中国公司是一家适应能力强的公司，利用漏洞和储备库存，同时为没有美国供应商的未来做准备。研发支出已经超过欧美竞争对手，从2018年的143亿美元飙升至去年的186亿美元。今年计划投资200亿美元。尽管它声称完全独立于中国政府，但它显然预计，如果美国继续打击，中国政府将进行干预。

This obviously threatens a retaliation that could extend to other economic sectors and spheres of geopolitical influence. "The worst-case Chinese response is to take over Taiwan and shut down the majority of US semiconductor companies, which would be an even larger issue leading to armed conflict," says Lum. Unlikely as that may be, tensions have already mounted during the coronavirus pandemic. To New Street Research, the recent crackdown in Hong Kong is a demonstration of Chinese muscle linked to the "new cold war" between China and the US in which Huawei is embroiled.

这显然威胁到可能扩展到其他经济部门和地缘政治影响领域的报复。”中国最坏的反应是接管台湾，关闭美国大多数半导体公司，这将是导致武装冲突的更大问题，”卢姆说。尽管这种可能性不大，但在冠状病毒大流行期间，紧张局势已经加剧。对新街研究而言，香港最近的镇压是中国肌肉与中国和美国卷入华为之间“新冷战”的关系的一个例证。

Another danger for the US is that its efforts to block Chinese firms have unintended and negative consequences for US industry. Besides attacking Huawei, the US government has also recently added Fiberhome, a smaller Chinese vendor, to its trade blacklist. Lum says this move increases the likelihood it will re-include ZTE, a Chinese rival to Huawei that previously came off the list after its payment of hefty fines. "The US strategy is to clearly shut down all Chinese telecom companies to US technology," he explains. "All this is doing is to hurt US companies and move business to Europe, Japan and elsewhere."

美国面临的另一个危险是，其封锁中国企业的努力给美国工业带来了意想不到的负面后果。除了攻击华为，美国政府最近还在其贸易黑名单上增加了规模较小的中国供应商Fiberhome。卢姆说，此举增加了中兴重新将华为竞争对手中兴纳入名单的可能性。此前，中兴在支付巨额罚款后，已从名单上除名他解释说：“美国的战略是明确地让所有的中国电信公司停止使用美国的技术。”所有这些都是在伤害美国公司，并将业务转移到欧洲、日本和其他国家。”

Just as NeoPhotonics, Lumentum and other component suppliers to Huawei sought loopholes in the initial rules, companies may simply try to evade the latest US regulations. Nelson Dong, a senior partner at US law firm Dorsey & Whitney, previously spelled out the risks. "This move may well force the global semiconductor industry to look away from US suppliers of semiconductor design tools and semiconductor production equipment and even to create new rival companies in other countries, including China itself," he said in a statement sent by email.

正如华为的新光子学、Lumentum和其他组件供应商在最初的规则中寻找漏洞一样，公司可能只是试图逃避美国的最新规定。美国多尔西和惠特尼律师事务所（Dorsey&Whitney）的高级合伙人纳尔逊•董（Nelson Dong）此前阐述了这些风险。”这一举措很可能迫使全球半导体行业远离美国的半导体设计工具和半导体生产设备供应商，甚至在包括中国在内的其他国家创建新的竞争对手公司。”。

There is precedent for this, too. Once dominant in the satellite technology sector, the US suffered a decline after imposing stricter export controls on the technology, says Dong. Those controls prompted many customers to avoid US suppliers, which ultimately lost billions of dollars in sales to their international rivals. More stringent controls in the semiconductor market could trigger "tectonic shifts within the microelectronics industry for decades to come," writes Dong.

这方面也有先例。曾在卫星技术领域占据主导地位的美国，在对卫星技术实施更严格的出口管制后，出现了下滑，董说。这些控制措施促使许多客户避开美国供应商，最终美国供应商向国际竞争对手损失了数十亿美元的销售额。董建华写道，半导体市场更严格的控制可能会引发“未来几十年微电子行业的结构性变化”。

China is already doubling down on technology investments. Last October, long before coronavirus and the recent escalations, it was reported to have set up a $29 billion state-backed semiconductor fund that will help it assert technology independence from the US. There can be little doubt that discussions about semiconductor manufacturing tools have now taken place in Chinese government circles.

中国的技术投资已经翻了一番。去年10月，早在冠状病毒（coronavirus）和最近升级之前，就有报道称，它已经成立了一个290亿美元的国家支持的半导体基金，这将有助于它断言技术独立于美国。毫无疑问，有关半导体制造工具的讨论现在已经在中国政府界展开。

There isn't true wealth but in people

These Chinese moves will not produce results quickly enough to save Huawei, according to New Street Research. Moreover, its prediction is that China will lose a technology battle to the US fought over the next five to ten years. "China won't be able to have competitive chips on that kind of timeframe, and will have nascent ecosystems, totally subscale to those in place in the US," write analysts in their report. "With an experience and a scale disadvantage, China cannot win."

新街研究公司（New Street Research）表示，中国的这些举措不会很快产生足以拯救华为的成果。此外，它的预测是，中国将在未来5至10年的技术战中输给美国。”分析师在他们的报告中写道：“在这样的时间框架内，中国将无法拥有有竞争力的筹码，而且将拥有新生的生态系统，与美国现有的生态系统完全不相称。”有了经验和规模劣势，中国就赢不了。”

But in the longer term, it probably will. "There isn't true wealth but in people," said Jean Bodin, a sixteenth-century French philosopher quoted by New Street Research, which points out that China's vast resources of human capital will ultimately be the only thing that matters. "The next fight will be on education and economic growth. Can the US win that one?"

但从长远来看，可能会这样。”16世纪的法国哲学家让·博丹（Jean Bodin）在《新街研究》（New Street Research）中指出，中国庞大的人力资本资源最终将是唯一重要的东西下一场斗争将是教育和经济增长。美国能赢吗？”

Revenues ($M)

This population imbalance is already a critical factor in today's telecom and technology markets. With its 1.4 billion people, China last year accounted for about 17% of total sales at Apple, the largest US gadget maker. It is responsible for as much as 60% of the 4G infrastructure market, according to Börje Ekholm, the CEO of Sweden's Ericsson, who thinks it will similarly dominate tomorrow's 5G sector. If this estimate is accurate, then limited access to China denies Ericsson and Finland's Nokia a bigger share of mobile industry revenues than Huawei misses due to restrictions in the US, Europe and parts of the Asia-Pacific.

这种人口不平衡已经成为当今电信和技术市场的一个关键因素。去年，中国拥有14亿人口，约占美国最大的电子产品制造商苹果（Apple）总销售额的17%。据瑞典爱立信（Ericsson）首席执行官Bórjeekholm称，该公司在4G基础设施市场的份额高达60%，他认为该公司同样将主导未来的5G领域。如果这一估计是准确的，那么由于美国、欧洲和亚太部分地区的限制，爱立信和芬兰诺基亚在移动行业收入中所占份额超过华为的预期。

In future, its human capital combined with its investments in digital technology will make China the dominant global force in artificial intelligence, explaining US efforts to upset Huawei, according to Kaan Terzioglu, a senior industry executive who previously led Turkish mobile operator Turkcell but is today a co-CEO at Veon. "Who do you think will have more success in training tech intelligence?" Terzioglu rhetorically asked Light Reading at last year's Mobile World Congress, before he had switched jobs. "Whoever has more data. Whoever is more digitalized today and has a bigger population. China is much more digitalized than the US."

据曾领导土耳其移动运营商Turkcell，但如今是Veon联合首席执行官的行业高管Kaan Terzioglu称，未来，中国的人力资本和对数字技术的投资将使中国成为人工智能领域的全球主导力量，这也解释了美国为打乱华为所做的努力。”你认为谁在培养技术智能方面会更成功？”泰尔齐奥格鲁在去年的移动世界大会上反问了“轻阅读”，当时他还没有换工作谁有更多的数据。今天数字化程度更高人口更多的人。中国的数字化程度远高于美国。”

In the research and development battle, in particular, the human capital imbalance will be hard for the US to counter. Last year, Huawei and ZTE together employed more than 124,000 people in R&D, a figure that equals about 63% of the entire combined workforce at Ericsson and Nokia. "There are so many people in China to hire," Lum told Light Reading during a conversation earlier this year. "It doesn't matter that everyone you are hiring isn't an Einstein. One of them will be."

尤其是在研发大战中，人力资本失衡将是美国难以应对的。去年，华为和中兴共雇佣了12.4万多人从事研发工作，这一数字相当于爱立信和诺基亚全部员工总数的63%左右。”“中国有这么多人需要招聘，”今年早些时候，鲁姆在一次谈话中告诉《光线阅读》你雇佣的每个人都不是爱因斯坦并不重要。其中之一就是。”

Disentangling US technology from Chinese products will reduce security risks and stop China from ripping off US innovation, say defenders of US policy moves. Amid a virus-triggered backlash against China, critics of this isolationism are becoming harder to find. But the successor to the current system of global supply chains, partnerships and trade is a balkanized world of incompatible standards, concentrated risk and potential resource constraints. It is one in which a rapprochement between China and the US is even harder to envisage. In that environment, a technology arms race fought over decades is unlikely to produce a US victor.

美国政策举措的捍卫者表示，将美国技术与中国产品分离，将降低安全风险，并阻止中国掠夺美国的创新成果。在一场由病毒引发的针对中国的反弹中，这种孤立主义的批评者越来越难找到。但是，目前全球供应链、伙伴关系和贸易体系的继承者是一个标准不相容、风险集中和潜在资源制约的巴尔干世界。这是一个中国和美国之间的和解更难以想象。在这种环境下，数十年来的技术军备竞赛不太可能产生美国的胜利者。