基于地质统计学模拟的三个因素不确定性量化在采用离散单元法进行稳定性分析案例研究中的应用

Uncertainty quantification of three factors by geostatistical simulations applied to a stability analysis case study using a discrete element method

Abstract: Uncertainties of sliding surfaces and structures of soil-rock mixture are two critical factors that affect slope stability. In this study, an uncertainty slope stability analysis method of a landslide with several potential sliding surfaces is proposed. Two geostatistical simulation methods, i.e., single normal equation simulation and sequential indicator simulation, are chosen to quantify the geological uncertainty of slopes by generating a large number of simulation maps with different positions of potential sliding surfaces and different structures of soil-rock mixtures. These maps are imported into the discrete element method program MatDEM, and uncertainty analysis is carried out through Monte Carlo simulations. A case study named Dahua landslide is carried out using the proposed method, where limited monitoring data is available. Based on the results of uncertainty analysis, it is found that displacements of most areas in the Dahua landslide are very small, and the frontal part of this slope is the most dangerous. Through field survey found that there are many large cracks in the frontal part of the Dahua landslide.

Keywords: Uncertainty analysis; Dahua landslide; Discrete element method (DEM); MatDEM; Monte carlo method

Fig.2 Longitudinal profile 1–1’ of the Dahua landslide.

Fig.7 A typical realization of the Dahua landslide in MatDEM.

Fig.9 Displacements of the Dahua landslide.

Fig.12  Realizations of theDahua landslide with diferentrock block content

Wang, Z., Wang, H., Xu, W. et al. Uncertainty quantification of three factors by geostatistical simulations applied to a stability analysis case study using a discrete element method. Environ Earth Sci 84, 50 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-12055-6